Turkish Intervention in Syria May Not Be As Desirable As It Seems

      Turkey has stepped up military action in recent days--not just against ISIS, but also against the PKK. Most news sources have suggested that Turkey's leadership has finally "woken up" to the threat of the Islamic State. But many Kurds seem to believe that Turkey's latest moves are no more than a pretext to stop the YPG's territorial gains.
      Now, to be sure, many Kurds hate Turkey, so it's wise to take their opinions on the matter with a grain of salt. All the same, the idea that Turkey has suddenly "woken up" makes no sense. The bomb attack in Suruc, the supposed cause of their "waking up," was an attack on a pro-YPG gathering--in other words, an attack on a group that the government considers dangerous and subversive. There was also a clash between the Turkish military and IS that left one soldier dead, but that would hardly seem to be a sufficient reason for a major intervention. Furthermore, Turkey has been greatly increasing border security for some time now--since the YPG took Tel Abyad, as a matter of fact. I believe that Turkey was awake all the time, they only needed a good reason to go into action.
     Let's look at the threats Turkey faces from President Erdogan's point of view. It seems pretty clear that he has a definite view for Syria's future. He wants Assad to be overthrown, and he wants to see some kind of moderate Islamist government in power that will cooperate with his regime--maybe a milder version of Jabhat al-Nusra. The Islamic State and the YPG both threaten this vision. ISIS is simply too radical to ever be a rational actor on the world stage, and, I'm sure, much too radical for Erdogan's taste anyway. But the YPG poses a completely different set of problems. Not only does the Kurdish advance threaten President Erdogan's vision for Syria, it also threatens his vision for Turkey. Turkey, of course, has long struggled with Kurdish nationalist movements. If an autonomus Kurdish region or even an independent state with strong ties to the US springs up overnight in northern Syria, serious repercussions could be in store for Turkey. In fact, some have already appeared: the HDP made significant gains in the recent elections. Erdogan can easily deal with the threat of the PKK, an internationally designated terrorist organization, but dealing with a strong, peaceful political party is a different matter altogether.
An intervention in Syria can kill two birds with one stone for Turkey: the Kurds and ISIS. President Erdogan can bomb the PKK, stop the YPG's advance by means of some sort of buffer zone (though it's certainly doubtful whether the US will tolerate that), and weaken ISIS. Erdogan has chosen a moment when his country seems under attack by the Islamic State to execute his plans. (He has a good pretext for bombing the PKK, too. After the Suruc attack, the PKK foolishly shot two policemen whom they claimed were linked to ISIS.) There is little question that he has made a clever strategic move. But does that move bode well for the goals of America?
Unfortunately, the answer is probably no (notwithstanding this ISW report). Ultimately, some kind of coalition of Kurds and moderate US-trained rebels is our best bet to make positive gains in Syria. If Turkey does anything to the detriment of the YPG, that means that they are weakening our only real ally in Syria. If Turkey takes a more extensive role in training or arming rebels, I expect the rebels to become more radical. And finally, Turkey's involvement will make it harder to achieve a negotiated settlement with Assad. I still hope to see something of that sort, in part because it could provide an opportunity for US-Russian cooperation. (I actually saw a report today that the PYD's leader, Salih Muslim, suggested that the YPG might be willing to fight with the Syrian army if they "get rid of the Baathist mentality," or something like that. I don't know if that's accurate.) It would be good if the American airforce could use the Incirlik airbase, but beyond that, Turkish involvement in the Syrian Civil War, if it goes the way I expect, is likely to have few good results.