Thursday, November 26, 2015

Washington

I have not written here for a long time, for many reasons--or, really, none at all, which amounts to more or less the same thing. Perhaps it would be a good idea, first, for me to post a few photographs of a recent trip to Washington, DC.


National Basilica and Shrine of the Immaculate Conception


I even met His Holiness there. 


The Air and Space Museum is pretty good. (X-15)


Me 262 


MC 205


Bf 109.

Robert E. Lee's house at Arlington National Cemetary.


Gerorge Washington's sword at the Museum of American History.


Scaffolding.


Our Lord sucking His thumb.


Wright Flyer.

By the way, it seems the SDf is advancing on Azaz. It's not clear whether that includes the YPG or just Jaysh al-Thuwar. 


Sunday, September 13, 2015

Amtrak and Yellow Stepstools

     On Saturday, we dropped off a guest (we had company last week) at a local Amtrak station. (Local, where I live, means 90 minutes away.) Apparently, Amtrak is not very good.
      The station was an ugly brown building, at least thirty-five years old. It didn't look any better inside. Everything was rather run-down. I saw a large poster in the waiting room, but it wasn't hanging on the wall; it was standing in a corner. I won't start on the restrooms. But I can tell you that two out of three urinals were functioning and that only one of two graffitti-covered stall doors had a lock. There were no mirrors, and separate faucets for hot and cold water; not just separate faucets, but faucets of completely different designs (and ages). There was a paper towel dispenser, but unfortunately no paper towels.
      Trackside wasn't any nicer. The platform was level with the tracks. Every wagon door did have a built-in ladder to help passengers get up, but since even that wasn't enough for elderly travelers, there were six or seven old yellow stepstools standing about. There was a loudspeaker on the platform, and it worked well for announcements; but between announcements it blared annoying music with the volume on high. On second thought, maybe I should be pleased there was a speaker at all.
       The trains themselves didn't look great either. The engines seemed new enough, but the wagons looked quite old. At least the train we were waiting for was only fifteen minutes late. (That really was a decent showing. A week ago, when our guest arrived, the train was at least an hour behind schedule.)
      I realize that Amtrak is short on funding. And perhaps (indeed, probably) a lack of money is the real issue. But this is still rather embarrassing for America. This station was on a fairly well-traveled route, in a city of 200,000. Something has to change if we want to provide decent rail service in this country.
      I've been in Europe several times, and things there are very different. Service is generally fast and efficient, and cities a tenth the size of the one I was in on Saturday boast equal or better facilities. At the very least, platforms reach up to the level of train doors. No yellow stepstools. Can't we at least manage that?

Sunday, August 9, 2015

Republican Debate


I listened to Thursday's Republican debate online (we don't have TV). It was a good deal more exciting and interesting than I expected. It was well-moderated, too, with tough questions all around. Oddly enough, my perceptions of winners and losers did not match up with those I've seen from many analysts. For example, I wasn't overly impressed with Marco Rubio. He spoke well, cogently, clearly, etc.—indeed, he was probably the best speaker there—yet he failed to really stand out. He reinforced the image I have of him as competent and polished, he simply wasn't exceptional. So, the winners:

Rand Paul. I have seen widely varying assessments of his performance, but one thing is clear: he stood out. He was quite combative, attacking both Trump and Christie. (And I was glad indeed to see him attack Trump.) It's arguable whether he got the better of the exchanges—I saw one article about how he had hammered Christie, and another about how Christie had hammered him—but he definitely stood up for his positions. But even beyond that, he was always clear and rational, and often seemed to have more detailed policy positions than other candidates.

Ben Carson. Carson came off as the oppposite of Paul: quiet, friendly, noncombative. But the impression he made was equally good. His answers were reasonable, intelligent, sometimes funny—his closing speech in particular. His answer when the moderators pressed him on things he hadn't known in the past—"you didn't know Alan Greenspan was secretary of the treasury"—his answer was particularly convincing. I don't think he's the president we need, but he may be one of the last standing in the race.

The loser (apart from Trump):

John Kasich. I do not understand why so many people are praising him for his performance. He managed to avoid the question almost every time, always coming back to his record as governor. (Once the moderator couldn't get an answer, turned to the next candidate and said something like, "Well, maybe I can do better with you.") He missed a great chance to score points with evangelicals on the "message from God" question. He has quite a compelling story of how he fell away from Christianity and then returned due to an auto accident that killled his parents. That was a major missed opportunity. I think he will be in the race a long time due to his relatively moderate, broadly attractive positions, but he came off on Monday, to me at least, as the most uninspiring of the bunch.

Here's a good summary of the debate.

Monday, August 3, 2015

Pictures

Eastern Bluebird.


The moon.

It was a beautiful yellow color, but I couldn't quite capture it. I adjusted the white balace in an attempt to do so. That didn't work. Observe:

Sunday, August 2, 2015

First Communion

Not my first communion. One of my little sisters had her first communion today.






We went to a park afterward. We saw a bunch of vultures there. Neat birds.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Cookies


A new notice on Blogger:
"European Union laws require you to give European Union visitors information about cookies used on your blog. In many cases, these laws also require you to obtain consent."
"As a courtesy"  they "have added a notice" to my blog "to explain Google's use of certain Blogger and Google cookies, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies."

      I suspect that soon the EU will require warnings when someone tries to post a comment: "Caution. Posting a comment may enable others to read it." And maybe general warnings to anyone reading a blog: "Caution. By reading this blog, you agree that the blogger agrees to allow you to agree to read it." They will have warnings for anyone writing a blog, too, making clear that something posted publically on the internet is not necessarily private.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Turkish Intervention in Syria May Not Be As Desirable As It Seems


      Turkey has stepped up military action in recent days--not just against ISIS, but also against the PKK. Most news sources have suggested that Turkey's leadership has finally "woken up" to the threat of the Islamic State. But many Kurds seem to believe that Turkey's latest moves are no more than a pretext to stop the YPG's territorial gains.
      Now, to be sure, many Kurds hate Turkey, so it's wise to take their opinions on the matter with a grain of salt. All the same, the idea that Turkey has suddenly "woken up" makes no sense. The bomb attack in Suruc, the supposed cause of their "waking up," was an attack on a pro-YPG gathering--in other words, an attack on a group that the government considers dangerous and subversive. There was also a clash between the Turkish military and IS that left one soldier dead, but that would hardly seem to be a sufficient reason for a major intervention. Furthermore, Turkey has been greatly increasing border security for some time now--since the YPG took Tel Abyad, as a matter of fact. I believe that Turkey was awake all the time, they only needed a good reason to go into action.
     Let's look at the threats Turkey faces from President Erdogan's point of view. It seems pretty clear that he has a definite view for Syria's future. He wants Assad to be overthrown, and he wants to see some kind of moderate Islamist government in power that will cooperate with his regime--maybe a milder version of Jabhat al-Nusra. The Islamic State and the YPG both threaten this vision. ISIS is simply too radical to ever be a rational actor on the world stage, and, I'm sure, much too radical for Erdogan's taste anyway. But the YPG poses a completely different set of problems. Not only does the Kurdish advance threaten President Erdogan's vision for Syria, it also threatens his vision for Turkey. Turkey, of course, has long struggled with Kurdish nationalist movements. If an autonomus Kurdish region or even an independent state with strong ties to the US springs up overnight in northern Syria, serious repercussions could be in store for Turkey. In fact, some have already appeared: the HDP made significant gains in the recent elections. Erdogan can easily deal with the threat of the PKK, an internationally designated terrorist organization, but dealing with a strong, peaceful political party is a different matter altogether.
An intervention in Syria can kill two birds with one stone for Turkey: the Kurds and ISIS. President Erdogan can bomb the PKK, stop the YPG's advance by means of some sort of buffer zone (though it's certainly doubtful whether the US will tolerate that), and weaken ISIS. Erdogan has chosen a moment when his country seems under attack by the Islamic State to execute his plans. (He has a good pretext for bombing the PKK, too. After the Suruc attack, the PKK foolishly shot two policemen whom they claimed were linked to ISIS.) There is little question that he has made a clever strategic move. But does that move bode well for the goals of America?
Unfortunately, the answer is probably no (notwithstanding this ISW report). Ultimately, some kind of coalition of Kurds and moderate US-trained rebels is our best bet to make positive gains in Syria. If Turkey does anything to the detriment of the YPG, that means that they are weakening our only real ally in Syria. If Turkey takes a more extensive role in training or arming rebels, I expect the rebels to become more radical. And finally, Turkey's involvement will make it harder to achieve a negotiated settlement with Assad. I still hope to see something of that sort, in part because it could provide an opportunity for US-Russian cooperation. (I actually saw a report today that the PYD's leader, Salih Muslim, suggested that the YPG might be willing to fight with the Syrian army if they "get rid of the Baathist mentality," or something like that. I don't know if that's accurate.) It would be good if the American airforce could use the Incirlik airbase, but beyond that, Turkish involvement in the Syrian Civil War, if it goes the way I expect, is likely to have few good results.


Friday, July 24, 2015

Young Birds

We've had a bunch of young grosbeaks and song sparrows lately.





We have a few young Chipping Sparrows as well, but our cat killed one of them.

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Good Article on Syria

This is quite an interesting article. I'm inclined to think we'll need to go in this direction, at least to some degree, to achieve stability in Syria.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Art

Sometimes I have nothing to do, so I start doodling on my tablet. At least, I did today. But I'm afraid the results may have been less than satisfactory.

Well, maybe it isn't so bad.
The fire department did save that cat, by the way.
There are reports today that the Islamic State managed to infiltrate Tel Abyad and "capture a district." They did infiltrate Tel Abyad, but contrary to most reports it seems that after a heavy gunbattle they were surrounded by the YPG in an abandoned school and several houses. They did not actually capture any areas. In any case, as far as I can tell the attack is merely a raid and not a serious attempt to regain lost territory.

Laudato Si

One of my favorite passages in Laudato Si is section 124.

124. Any approach to an integral ecology, which by definition does not exclude human beings, needs to take account of the value of labour, as Saint John Paul II wisely noted in his Encyclical Laborem Exercens. According to the biblical account of creation, God placed man and woman in the garden he had created (cf. Gen 2:15) not only to preserve it (“keep”) but also to make it fruitful (“till”). Labourers and craftsmen thus “maintain the fabric of the world” (Sir 38:34). Developing the created world in a prudent way is the best way of caring for it, as this means that we ourselves become the instrument used by God to bring out the potential which he himself inscribed in things: “The Lord created medicines out of the earth, and a sensible man will not despise them” (Sir 38:4).

The Pope is not a radical environmentalist who thinks that humans are a sort of "earth-blight." He expresses in this passage how we are called to develop the earth, and yet to do so with care, "in a prudent way." One of the aspects of his "integral ecology," I believe, is the idea that as we are part of creation, we are called to work with it; not against it, yet not without it either. When we labor in such a way that we are "tilling the garden" of this world, we are truly in keeping with our calling both to guard the world and to be "fruitful and multiply."

Monday, June 29, 2015

Cats

This afternoon we began hearing an odd "mewing" sound outside. We thought it might be our cat; in any case, we paid little attention at first. But we were still hearing it four or five hours later, so we went outside to have a look. We discovered a cat (not ours!) stuck in a tree. One of our neighbors recognized it; he said it was a feral cat that had previously spent two days stuck in a neighbor's car. (Two thoughts come to mind: a), this must be an extremely stupid cat; b), how does a cat get stuck in a  car for two days?) As of now the fire department is attempting to rescue it.
      I also read that the Turkish army is forming up west of Jarabulus. It will be interesting to  see if Turkey plans to send troops into Turkey.

Sunday, June 21, 2015

YPG Takes Tel Abyad

       If you follow the Syrian Civil War, you probably already know that the YPG took Tel Abyad, a strategic town on the Syrian—Turkish border. But I do have a few thoughts on the matter that I'd like to post
      Some random points: firstly, it is odd that the Islamic State gave up so quickly. I don't think they could have held out in any case in the face of US airstrikes (remember Kobane), but Tel Abyad has major strategic importance. I would certainly have expected them to hold on as long as they possibly could.
      I don't know for certain why ISIS retreated. But here's my personal theory: the Islamic State is weaker than we think. After their victory in Ramadi, everyone was shocked: "ISIS is coming back! We haven't degraded them!" However, the shocking thing is that they were at a ten-to-one disadvantage. If ISIS is really so powerful, one would expect them to attack with more men. They won because of good tactics, prior reputation and luck, not because of manpower or equipment. They attacked in a sandstorm and scared the Iraqi Army with a barrage of suicide bombs. They didn't launch a major campaign or mobilize large numbers of troops.  The conquest of Palmyra was more impressive. But remember that Assad had nothing to lose by allowing ISIS to capture the city: having terrorists in control of important archaelogical sites helps him build his narrative that he is the only viable option for the West in Syria. Remember, too, that the US did not provide airstrikes during the battle.
      In any case, the last time that IS launched a major attack on an area defended by US airpower was the assault on Kobane. They have not done anything of the kind since then, and in particular they have never really stood up to a mjor assault, either. In Tikrit they only had a few hundred men. Their present tactic seems to be to execute lightning raids against already-terrified enemies. But they don't seem to have the manpower to carry out or defend against a major attack.
      Of course, it's possible that this phenomenon is due entirely to the airstrikes. All the same, I think it's unlikely. I don't believe that IS is as strong as we think.
      I wonder also whether the YPG will attack Raqqa. They have provided conflicting statements on the matter, but I'm inclined to think they will do so at some point. Yet if they do, they will be attacking a majority Arab area. It's not clear how well they are getting on with Arabs in their territory so far, and in any case Raqqqa is well outside the boundaries of any future independent state they could realistically hope to set up.
      On an entirely unrelated matter, I have been reading Laudato Si (Pope Francis's new encyclical) over the last two days. I'm about half done now, and finding it interesting and powerful. I'll post something when I'm finished.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

New ISW Report on Syrian Civil War

The Institute for the Study of War has a new document on likely courses of action for the major players in the Syrian Civil War over the next several months. It's available here. The report and prognostications are interesting, but I disagree with the conclusions as regards ISW's suggestions for American policy. They say that we need "a higher level of aggressive and sustained US leadership," but also that we should "reconsider" our "current threshold for dealing only with 'moderate' rebel allies." I agree with the former, but not the latter.
     It seems the Institute is suggesting that we form a coalition of moderate groups and "powerful Islamist brigades" (excluding ISIS and Nusra, of course) and use that to end the war. To begin with, I don't like the idea of a coalition here. I think it will lead to dangerous divisions, especially if Assad does fall. Furthermore, if Islamists play a prominent role in defeating him, they will certainly demand a prominent role in forming a new government. We will then be left with the choice of giving them what they want or allowing them to grow discontented and form the next Islamic State. It seems to me that we need to be very careful that any new government is not worse than Assad's, and this plan will likely make it worse. If we train and arm the Syrian opposition, we should ensure that it is as unified and moderate as possible.
     They also note that the Kurds are "unable and likely unwilling to project power deeper into the Syrian interior." I don't believe that's correct. As far as I know, the YPG plans to move south toward Raqqa if they are succesful in taking Tel Abyad. And their campaign to unite Jazira and Kobane cantons has been very rapid and efficient so far.

Thursday, June 11, 2015

The Pope, Putin, and Necessary Formalities

    First, the necessary formalities. Welcome to the blog. I hope you enjoy reading it. Etc. (What can I do? It's the first post. I have to say something.)
     Apparently, Vladimir Putin kept Pope Francis waiting for an hour and twenty minutes at their recent meeting. However, the actual substance of their talk is more interesting.  It seems that His Holiness did not issue a strong condemnation of Russia's activities in Ukraine. I did not expect him to, though. By putting himself in the position of being the only western leader willing to speak to the Russian president, Pope Francis will obtain a better standpoint to assist in future negotiations regarding Ukraine. I suspect that he hopes to be able to act as a sort of middleman, much as he did in the US negotiations with Cuba. But there is a risk that President Putin could attempt to use him as a tool to court Uktraine's Catholics. (I understand Ukraine has a significant Catholic--Orthodox divide.) Here's a link to Vatican Radio's story on their meeting.
      I didn't see many birds today--except for a Blue Jay that attempted to, um, vandalize our resident House Wrens' nest. He had his head inside before we sent him packing.
     By the way, to show solidarity with my family, I should post a link to my mother's blog, www.untroddenpaths.blogspot.com. I, personally, prefer my own, but that's a matter of taste. Und ja, wie meine Mutter spreche ich auch Deutsch, nur schreibe ich ein bisschen besser Englisch. Aber Kommentare auf Deutsch heisse ich genauso wie die englischen willkommen.