If you follow the Syrian Civil War, you probably already know that the YPG took Tel Abyad, a strategic town on the Syrian—Turkish border. But I do have a few thoughts on the matter that I'd like to post
Some random points: firstly, it is odd that the Islamic State gave up so quickly. I don't think they could have held out in any case in the face of US airstrikes (remember Kobane), but Tel Abyad has major strategic importance. I would certainly have expected them to hold on as long as they possibly could.
I don't know for certain why ISIS retreated. But here's my personal theory: the Islamic State is weaker than we think. After their victory in Ramadi, everyone was shocked: "ISIS is coming back! We haven't degraded them!" However, the shocking thing is that they were at a ten-to-one disadvantage. If ISIS is really so powerful, one would expect them to attack with more men. They won because of good tactics, prior reputation and luck, not because of manpower or equipment. They attacked in a sandstorm and scared the Iraqi Army with a barrage of suicide bombs. They didn't launch a major campaign or mobilize large numbers of troops. The conquest of Palmyra was more impressive. But remember that Assad had nothing to lose by allowing ISIS to capture the city: having terrorists in control of important archaelogical sites helps him build his narrative that he is the only viable option for the West in Syria. Remember, too, that the US did not provide airstrikes during the battle.
In any case, the last time that IS launched a major attack on an area defended by US airpower was the assault on Kobane. They have not done anything of the kind since then, and in particular they have never really stood up to a mjor assault, either. In Tikrit they only had a few hundred men. Their present tactic seems to be to execute lightning raids against already-terrified enemies. But they don't seem to have the manpower to carry out or defend against a major attack.
Of course, it's possible that this phenomenon is due entirely to the airstrikes. All the same, I think it's unlikely. I don't believe that IS is as strong as we think.
I wonder also whether the YPG will attack Raqqa. They have provided conflicting statements on the matter, but I'm inclined to think they will do so at some point. Yet if they do, they will be attacking a majority Arab area. It's not clear how well they are getting on with Arabs in their territory so far, and in any case Raqqqa is well outside the boundaries of any future independent state they could realistically hope to set up.
On an entirely unrelated matter, I have been reading Laudato Si (Pope Francis's new encyclical) over the last two days. I'm about half done now, and finding it interesting and powerful. I'll post something when I'm finished.
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